KBC: Hungarian optimism supports regional currencies

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KBC: Hungarian optimism supports regional currencies

08.10.2012 11:54 Monday
Hungarian optimism helped the whole region on Friday. The forint gained nearly 1% and also the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty were able to ignore poor performance of emerging markets. The Hungarian government presented a new mix of fiscal austerity measures reflecting a weaker growth forecast for the next year.

The new fiscal strategy drops controversial imposition of the transaction tax on the central bank. The tax was heavily criticised by Hungary’s official creditors, which led to needless pressure on the rise in risk premiums on Hungarian assets.

The Czech koruna may get under moderate pressure today if a series of weak macro-figures overshadows Hungarian optimism. Especially falling industrial output and surprisingly weak new orders (both domestic and external) send clear warnings signals regarding real GDP growth in the second half of this year.

Despite rather positive technical picture, all regional currencies may find it difficult to extend their recent gains, if the US dollar continues to strengthen.

KBC

kk



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